It’s that time of year again, time to predict which films will take home some Oscars. This year is probably the most wide open in recent memory, which should make it more exciting. However, the films I want to win aren’t necessarily still in the conversation, so I’m not super enthused about the Oscars this year. I’ll still give it my best prediction shot though.
As a recap, my previous prediction averages are: 68% (2012), 80% (2013), and 75% (2014). I expect my average this year to be in the toilet because literally no one knows what’s going on. And by no one I mean the internet (specifically Indiewire, Variety, and The Hollywood Reporter).
Animated Feature…
What was nominated: Anomalisa, Boy and the World, Inside Out, Shaun the Sheep Movie, and When Marnie Was There
Who I’m rooting for: Inside Out
And the award will go to: Inside Out
It’s gotta be Inside Out, right? I has to be. For once I have actually seen one of the animated features, so of course I’m going to be rooting for the only one I’ve seen (and I loved it). Plus it has a screenplay nom, so clearly the Academy likes it. I wonder if Anomalisa poses any threat though…
Foreign Film….
What was nominated: Embrace of the Serpent, Mustang, Son of Saul, Theeb, and A War
Who I’m rooting for: I haven’t seen any of these so I’m pretty neutral
And the award will go to: Son of Saul
Son of Saul has been getting so much hype, I can’t see anything else winning at this point.
Original Score….
What was nominated: Bridge of Spies, Carol, The Hateful Eight, Sicario, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Who I’m rooting for: Carol
And the award will go to: The Hateful Eight
I know The Hateful Eight won the Globe, and the score is awesome, so I have no problem going with The Hateful Eight here. Apparently Morricone has never won an Oscar, which is a bit ridiculous to be honest. Honestly, I liked all of these scores (maybe not Bridge of Spies so much), but otherwise I wouldn’t really mind any of these winning. If I had to pick, Carol just edges out Sicario, but just barely.
Original Song….
What was nominated: “Earned It” from 50 Shades of Grey, “Manta Ray” from Racing Extinction, “Simple Song #3” from Youth, “Til it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground, and “Writings on the Wall” from Spectre
Who I’m rooting for: I couldn’t care less about this category this year
And the award will go to: “Till it Happens to You” from The Hunting Ground
So I was all ready to go with “Writings on the Wall” just cuz it was the only one I knew, but no one else is really predicting it. They’re all predicting “Till it Happens to You,” which apparently is Lady Gaga, and she does seem to be on an awards roll lately. So I guess I’ll guess that.
Sound mixing…
What was nominated: Bridge of Spies, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revanant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I’m rooting for: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
And the award will go to: The Revenant
My rule for picking the sound categories is whatever I noticed in the theater gets it, and when I saw Star Wars I did notice the surround sound. There was some cool ice melting sounds at the end, plus Star Wars as a franchise is pretty well known for having quality sound. Officially I’m going with The Revenant because I actually don’t know much about this category and that seems to be the consensus on the internet.
Sound editing….
What was nominated: Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Sicario, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Who I’m rooting for: Ex Machina Star Wars: The Force Awakens
And the award will go to: The Revenant
The sound categories don’t always go together, but it seems like they should. The internet agrees, so I’m going with The Revenant wins again. If The Revenant actually wins all the awards I’m predicting it will, I’ll be very upset.
Makeup and Hair….
What was nominated: Mad Max: Fury Road, The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared, and The Revenant
Who I’m rooting for: Mad Max: Fury Road
And the award will go to: Mad Max: Fury Road
Everyone’s predicting Mad Max, I love Mad Max, and I’m glad to be able to not pick The Revenant, so I’m going with Mad Max.
Costumes…..
What was nominated: Carol, Cinderella, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, and The Revenant
I’m rooting for: Carol
And the award will go to: Mad Max: Fury Road
I suppose this category seems to be a showdown between my two favorite films of the year, Carol and Mad Max, and I’m okay with whatever wins. Most are predicting Mad Max though, since the same designer worker on Carol and Cinderella and will probably cancel herself out. Seems reasonable, so I’ll go with Mad Max I guess.
Production Design…
What was nominated: Bridge of Spies, The Danish Girl, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and The Revenant
I’m rooting for: Mad Max: Fury Road
And the award goes to: Mad Max: Fury Road
Of course the real winner of this award should be Crimson Peak, but whatever. Let’s be real though, so much though and care went into Mad Max’s prod design, literal backstories for every vehicle!?! I do believe Mad Max is very deserving.
Visual Effects….
What was nominated: Ex Machina, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I’m rooting for: Mad Max: Fury Road
And the award goes to: Star Wars: The Force Awakens
It makes sense that the Academy would give this award to Star Wars, because of the historic value of the franchise plus you know, it was actually good and all. I’m good with Star Wars winning, but all in all it was a good year for practical effects. My gut reaction is to go with Mad Max, because of the flame throwing guitar and the polecats, but you know, light sabers are cool too. (In the continuing theme of this year, if The Revenant takes it I’m going to be upset.)
Best Editing….
What was nominated: The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, Spotlight, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens
I’m rooting for: Mad Max: Fury Road
And the award will go to: The Big Short
As of writing this, I still have not seen The Big Short. It seems to be gaining more and more momentum (though maybe not as much as The Revenant) so perhaps this will be where it wins. This is one award I’m not reflexively giving to Mad Max though, that editing had to be brilliant for us to understand those action scenes.
Cinematography…
What was nominated: Carol, The Hateful Eight, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Revenant, and Sicario
I’m rooting for: Ed Lachman for Carol
And the award will go to: Emmanuel Lubezki for The Revenant
Cinematography is obviously my favorite category and Lubezki’s continual domination of it has become a sort of sore subject with me. I have a problem with it, but I also don’t have a problem with it at the same time because obviously Lubezki is the master. But Roger Deakins not winning for the 13th time makes me sad, and my favorite of the year, Carol, not getting anything either…. well let’s just say I would give everyone an award in this category if I had that power. (Here’s to #deakinsoscar2016 for Hail, Caesar!)
Adapted Screenplay….
What was nominated: The Big Short, Brooklyn, Carol, The Martian, and Room
I’m rooting for: The Martian, surprisingly
And the award will go to: The Big Short
Surprisingly enough, I’m rooting for The Martian in this category instead of Carol. I’m not even sure why. Probably because of the jokes. I haven’t read the source material or the screenplays in any of these cases, but I’ve heard Brooklyn‘s adaptation is good and it was also very high on my top ten list. Everyone’s predicting The Big Short though, and I still haven’t seen it.
Original Screenplay…
What was nominated: Bridge of Spies, Ex Machina, Inside Out, Spotlight, and Straight Outta Compton
I’m rooting for: Inside Out
And the award will go to: Spotlight
Spotlight seems like the natural choice here, the early front runner for BP which seems to have been outstripped by latecomers The Big Short and The Revenant. It only makes sense the Academy would want to reward it where it can, since it doesn’t look like BP is in the cards anymore. However, Inside Out was super clever and original; I’d be thrilled to see it win (but I’m totally cool with Spotlight too).
Best Supporting Actress…
Who was nominated: Jennifer Jason Leigh for The Hateful Eight, Rooney Mara for Carol, Rachel McAdams for Spotlight, Alica Vikander for The Danish Girl, and Kate Winslett for Steve Jobs
I’m rooting for: Rooney Mara for Carol
And the award will go to: Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl
Alicia Vikander seems to be the next big thing; I find it hard to believe she won’t come away with an award. But what do I know. Winslett did win the Globe, and Jennifer Jason Leigh has that “she’s been around forever and we haven’t given her an award yet” thing going for her. Winning for a supporting performance in a QT film worked for Christoph Waltz, why not Leigh? Of course, I’m rooting for Rooney Mara who should really be in lead but that’s a story for a different day.
Best Supporting Actor…
Who was nominated: Christian Bale for The Big Short, Tom Hardy for The Revenant, Mark Ruffalo for Spotlight, Mark Rylance for Bridge of Spies, and Sylvester Stallone for Creed
Who I’m rooting for: Sylvester Stallone for Creed
And the award will go to: Sylvester Stallone for Creed
To see Stallone win after all these years for playing the character that made him famous originally is a narrative too good to pass up. I don’t think the Academy will, and neither can I. (Sorry, Mark Rylance.) But even if he doesn’t win somehow, he did go the distance (ROCKY!! ADRIANNNN!!!)
Best Actress…
Who was nominated: Cate Blanchett for Carol, Brie Larson for Room, Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, Charlotte Rampling for 45 Years, and Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn
Who I’m rooting for: Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn
And the award will go to: Brie Larson for Room
Even though I could go on and on about Saoirse Ronan’s perfect performance in Brooklyn, I think the Academy will follow the hype and go with Brie Larson. I’m not too mad about it though, even though I like Saoirse’s performance better, it’s not like I can sit here and say Larson isn’t good in Room. Plus, after last year, I’ve basically given up on getting what I want in this category ever.
Best Actor….
Who was nominated: Bryan Cranston for Trumbo, Matt Damon for The Martian, Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant, Micheal Fassbender for Steve Jobs, and Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl
I’m rooting for: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
And the award will go to: Leonardo DiCaprio for The Revenant
Even stronger than the Sly Stallone narrative is the poor Oscarless Leo narrative. He ate a raw deer liver, crawled around the snow for months, and got attacked by a CGI bear. They have to give him an Oscar before he literally kills himself onscreen. He’s running out of new auteurs to work with, new characters who’s wives are dead. JUST GIVE HIM AN OSCAR ALREADY ACADEMY! Then hopefully we can all move on. (Though it’ll be disappointing not to be able to use that old “I may not have made it in the industry yet, but at least I have as many Oscars as Leo DiCaprio” joke anymore.)
Best Director….
Who was nominated: Adam McKay for The Big Short, George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road, Lenny Abrahamson for Room, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu for The Revenant, and Tom McCarthy for Spotlight
Who I’m rooting for: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road
And the award will go to: George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road
George Miller > Inarritu. That’s my whole argument. In all seriousness, I’m not sure how this is going to work out. It always seems tied to BP, and since that’s still kinda up in the air, I’m not really sure how to predict this. Inarritu did win the DGA, but he also got an Oscar last year. I also have no idea how McKay figures into all of this. When I first starting researching this, it seemed more in Miller’s favor, but I think Inarritu is gaining more momentum somehow. I really gotta go with my heart on this one though, and hope that the Academy’s heart is in a similar place.
Best Picture….
What was nominated: The Big Short, Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, Room, and Spotlight
What I’m rooting for: Mad Max: Fury Road
And the award will go to: The Revenant
To me, BP this year is a momentum game. Whichever film has the perceived most momentum is going to take it home. Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, The Martian, and Room all seem dead in the water at this point. Mad Max is probably going to get tons of technical awards, sort of the Gravity or The Grand Budapest Hotel of this year, and not take home BP because of it. Spotlight had the early advantage, but I think it peaked too soon and it’s only gonna get screenplay. The Big Short has the PGA, Spotlight has SAG ensemble, The Revenant has the Globe and the BAFTA. I feel like another Inarritu film can’t win again, but if he’s not getting director maybe? I also haven’t seen The Big Short which is not helping matters….. But no one really knows this year, and it’s weird. It’s not Birdman vs. Boyhood, it’s not 12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity, it’s not Lincoln/Life of Pie vs. Argo. It’s like The Revenant vs. The Big Short vs. Spotlight sort of vs. Mad Max. Kind of. But I feel at this point, The Revenant is edging out everyone else slightly. But boy oh boy, I hope I’m wrong.
I don’t predict the shorts categories because I don’t have enough background to even pretend to know what’s going on. I could do doc feature this year though, because I actually saw a couple this year! Only one that was nominated, and even though I’m not officially predicting it, I bet Amy takes it. But anyway, this year is so crazy and up in the air I bet I’m going to get the lowest prediction average of the past three years. I’m not super pumped about this year because a lot of things I would want to happen are either for sure not going to happen in the light of the nominations, or probably won’t happen because I don’t agree with the academy. But oh well. We’ll see come tomorrow night!
The Soul of the Plot 
Some good strong picks and I agree with a lot of them. Just finished writing my review for Son of Saul. Trust me, it is powerful stuff.
Reblogged this on Jojo Castillo.
Great predictions. RIght!